A Classroom Lesson in Epidemiology and Political Decision-making

Teacher: Now class, I want you to put away your maths books and listen. We’re going to do an exercise in – Angela Wilson if I see that cellphone in your hand again I’ll confiscate it for a week.

Angela: You can’t.

Teacher: Just watch me. As I was saying, we’re going to do an exercise in epidemiology and political control.

Grant: What?

Teacher: I want you to imagine that you are the Prime Minister of New Zealand, OK? You are the Prime Minister…

David: Do I have a hot secretary?

Teacher: The female Prime Minister of New Zealand, and you have been told that there is a growing epidemic overseas of a flu-like virus, which could turn into a pandemic – that means it’s everywhere – and you have to decide what to do about it. It seems it will mainly affect the very old who are already ill. You can’t just tell people what to do. You’re not a tyrant. Remember what we talked about  last week? You have to pass laws, in Parliament, which the police can then enforce.

Cynthia: Legislation.

Teacher: That’s’ right, Cynthia. Legislation. Now, you have two options. In Option A, you put the whole country into lockdown, all 5 million people, so that they won’t spread the virus. That means shutting down all schools, universities, bars, restaurants, sports clubs, banks, shops, shopping centres, car yards, movies – everything. Lots of people will lose their jobs permanently, businesses will go broke, everyone will have to stay at home, there will be queues at supermarkets, many people will be deeply unhappy, and the country will be in debt for decades.

Alice: Sounds awful. What’s Option B?

Teacher: Option B is to immediately stop all tourists coming into the country, and test all returning New Zealanders for the virus as they come in. If they test positive, they go into forced quarantine for two weeks, just like they did in the nineteenth century, in the quarantine stations. Older, vulnerable people are told to isolate and services are set up to care for their needs. But everyone else, 5 million people, can go on with their lives.

Grant: But won’t that be difficult, testing all those people coming in and quarantining some?

Teacher: Yes, very, very difficult. But your job is to weigh the difficulties. So you have to decide whether to put money into processing and inconveniencing thousands of people, and accommodating some of them, or shutting down the whole of New Zealand, 5 million people, for an indefinite period, with all the long-term consequences.

David: Well that’s pretty stupid. I mean, who would choose Option A? You’d have to be crazy.

Teacher: But what if choosing Option A meant that in the end not many people got the virus and hardly anyone died? Wouldn’t that mean Option A was justified?

[Very long pause]

Gerald: But Miss, you wouldn’t know whether Option B wouldn’t have worked just as well or better, would you? You wouldn’t know. So you can’t say afterwards that Option A was the better choice. You can’t say it worked better, because you just don’t know.

Teacher:  Well done, Gerald. Here’s a gold star.

Kate Flinders