Cause and Effect: Covid-19 or the Response to Covid-19?




I read the Otago Daily Times, not because I live in Otago, or because it is a particularly good or insightful newspaper, but because it is not owned by Fairfax Media, who dominate the New Zealand news landscape in a way that is more reminiscent of authoritarian theocracies than a Western liberal democracy.

Here is a selection of excerpts from recent stories. See if you can detect a pattern.

15 May: Coronavirus has taken a toll on Michael Hill International which said this morning it was closing nine stores, of which three are in New Zealand.
17 May: Hospitality chain the Good Group − owners of upmarket Queenstown restaurants such as Botswana Butchery and White & Wong's − has made half of its more than 300 staff redundant amid the Covid-19 crisis …. Good Group says the pandemic has decimated its business, and it kept as many staffers as it could.
18 May: Furniture and electronics retailer Smiths City has entered an agreement to be sold for $60 million to Polar Capital …. Alastair Kerr, chair of Smiths City, said the company had been exploring options for a turnaround of the business but the impact from Covid-19 had forced it to find new capital and speed up the process.
25 May One hundred and thirty jobs are being cut at TV3 owner MediaWorks …. “As you know, Covid-19 has simultaneously changed the world and impacted our business in ways that we could not predict or prepare for. It has also completely changed the market that we operate in and this means that we must adapt to ensure our survival and sustainability in the coming months.”
25 May: H&J Smith Group says it is considering closing stores in the South as it tries to secure its long-term future due to Covid-19 …. About 175 staff would be affected.
26 May: One of New Zealand's largest hotel chains, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, has cut hundreds of staff in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
26 May: The group that owns Farmers department stores has confirmed some staff across the company have been let go as a result of Covid-19’s impacts. 
Oh, you say, businesses closing because of the pandemic. That’s the pattern. And you’re right that all the reports blame the corona virus pandemic for the businesses collapsing. But the actual reason for the economic disaster causing all these closures is the Government’s response to the pandemic.

This might seem to be splitting hairs, but it’s not. Once the pandemic started, New Zealand, like many other countries, couldn’t have stopped it. What it could do was make different decisions on how to deal with it. There were choices. For example, as I said in a post on 7 April, in the form of a classroom lesson, New Zealand could close the borders, protect the vulnerable and keep the economy going. This probably wasn’t feasible for London, or New York. But it was an option for many countries, and as a small island nation the option was very viable here − and we didn’t take it.

It’s a test you can carry out yourselves on your local newspaper or online news source. See how often cause and effect are correctly linked. Wherever you are in the world, whenever anyone says, “Oh yes, this economic meltdown happened because of the pandemic,” think about it, and whether it is more accurate to say, “Actually, this economic meltdown happened because of our Government’s response to the pandemic.”

Kate Flinders

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